Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
